Previous Newsletter
30 - A REAL ESTATE MARKET READY TO TURN
You are asking yourself, have I read this before? You are correct, my last newsletter had the same title with one exception, a question mark at the end of the title.
I believe I can safely remove the question mark and make the statement that, the 30-A market has started to make its turn to a healthier position.
In Walton County in June of this year (2007) against (2006):
Single Family resales were up 22.73%
Condo resales were up 45%
When I look at a graph of sales activity, I see an upward swing starting to take place between January and February of this year. The chart's making an upward move not only in units sold but also prices realized.
I'm seeing communities like Seaside, Watercolors, Alys Beach and Rosemary beach sales picking up and realizing median sales prices in the 1.7 million dollar range.
I'm seeing the rest of 30-A sales picking up and realizing a median price range around $850,000. What this says to me, is that the entire 30-A market, will move up to close the gap between the “community” sales prices and the free standing property sales prices.
As always, I suggest you read a copy of my previous newsletter which further explains all the positive changes to the area. A copy can be found at:
www.gotothebeach.net/30_Previous_Newsletter.html
However, I'll review some of the positives in the market and tell you a few stories which relate to our market.
Every two years I have to take real estate continuing education classes to keep my license up to date. I recently signed up for a “Certified International Real Estate Specialist” program which takes care of my continuing education classes and also prepares me for what I believe we are going see happen to our area as the new International Airport is completed in the next few years. Orlando and southern Florida is already seeing an influx of international investors. These travelers have easy access via airlines and the Europeans have a very favorable currency exchange rate against the dollar. Would you buy as much real estate as you could afford if everything was priced at ½ price? Well, this is what is happening as the pound and other currencies have this type of exchange rate. International travelers are slowly finding the N. W. Coast of Florida and will take advantage of the current pricing of real estate and exchange rates. This is going to put more upward price pressure on our market as inventory drops. For that matter, more and more Americans are finding the N. W. Coast of Florida and liking what they see. I challenge you to find any nicer beaches in the U.S. The N. W. Coast of Florida is in it's infancy as far as being found.
We have currently gone through two years of price corrections to our market. Prices on many properties are now back to 2004 levels. For several year's I could not say that there were many bargains in our market. Today I can say we are priced well, and there are some real bargains to be had. I believe I can safely say that over the next 5 years we will look back at this correction as a real buying opportunity. In 5 to 7 years I believe we will look back and say to ourselves, “I could have bought this home at $xxx,xxx just 5 years ago.
It happened before and it's going to happen again.
Real Estate prices have never decreased in value over a long term period. Only short term price corrections with higher highs being made during each of the following cycles.
The only negatives I see in the market right now is the News Media.
It is difficult to watch the national news without some story of doom and gloom about the U.S. housing market.
As an investor, I have learned over the years to analyze each investment myself and stay away from what I call the “heard mentality”. Whether it is in stocks, where we are now seeing wild 200 to 300 point market swings or in the Real Estate market. I have found the news media is always lagging when it comes to making their reports. In another words, when they start telling you to get into an investment, you should have done it probably 6 months before they start reporting it. Use their tardiness to your advantage.
Again, there are some real bargains out there to be had. I'll mention a couple just to make my point.
There is a gulf side / gulf view condo in Seagrove Beach which at the height of the market was for sale at $549,000 It is currently reduced to $299,000 and I believe it can be bought for $285,000.
There is a large, 2300 sq. ft. 4 bedroom gulf front condo for sale for $1,195,000. At the height of the market these units were selling for $1,550.000.
There is a gulfside / gulfview 5 bedroom single family home, one back from the beach, for sale for $749,000 while other homes, not as close to the beach, on the same street are for sale for $900,000 and up. I believe this home can be bought for $720,000.
The point to my story, if you are looking for a beach property, there are currently some true values which I believe in a 5 to 7 year period you'll pat yourself on the back for purchasing and being that smart.
Again, I know this market well and I love to share my knowledge, please feel free to give me a call or drop me an E-mail anytime with questions or just to discuss what's happening.
Have a great day!
Jon Miller
GoToTheBeach.net
850-231-3344
JMAJCJ@aol.com